After holding the repo rate at 6.50 per cent for two years, RBI reduced the key policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25 per cent on February 7th, 2025. This has become the first repo rate cut in nearly five years. It reflects a shift in monetary policy to boost the country's economic growth.
The Repo Rate is the interest rate at which the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) lends money to commercial banks. When RBI increases the repo rate, borrowing becomes expensive for banks, leading to a rise in interest rates on loans for individuals and businesses.
On the opposite side, when RBI cuts down the repo rate, banks can borrow money at lower interest costs, allowing them to reduce interest rates on personal loans, home loans, and business loans for people.
In this article, we expand further on the causation and consequences of the recent repo rate cuts, which sectors it impacted the most and how investors should navigate through this.
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For the past two years, the repo rate was stagnant at 6.50 per cent until RBI’s six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) lowered the key policy rate to 6.25 per cent.
RBI reduced the repo rate by making borrowing cheaper for banks to stimulate the economic situation and encourage more spending and investment.
This policy change certainly demonstrates the central bank’s response to developing economic activity. It was a reaction to accommodate the slowing Indian economy, which witnessed the GDP growth dip to 5.4%, i.e. the lowest in the last two years.
Commercial banks can now borrow from RBI at a lower rate, reducing their cost of funds. Even though the loan rates may decrease, the deposit rate would still be relatively the same, putting pressure on the bank’s Net Interest Margins (NIMs). This can also potentially impact profitability.
The demand for loans, including personal, business, education, home and car, will increase, especially in the retail and Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) segments.
With reduced EMIs on these loans, individuals will have more disposable income and spending appetite.
Since interest rates on car loans will be lower, it will make financing the vehicle cheaper and easier, boosting car sales significantly.
Borrowers with floating interest rates will benefit from this policy change. The lower borrowing rate for banks will pass down the benefits to the customers through reduced interest rates on their automobile loans.
When the repo rate cut was announced, the market reaction, as in the stocks of auto giants such as Tata Motors, Mahindra & Mahindra, Ashok Leyland and Maruti Suzuki, witnessed average gains of more than 4%.
On the other hand, small and mid-cap companies in infrastructure and other related industries witnessed a decline.
Repo cut rates are more likely to have a positive impact on the overall real-estate sector. It will make home loans more affordable and will boost the demand for housing as well.
Lower interest rates may increase sales, reduce the inventory of unsold homes, and improve liquidity. It will also encourage developers to launch new infrastructural projects, creating opportunities for both homebuyers and investors.
Due to lower borrowing costs, it will be more attractive for businesses to invest in office real-estate and commercial properties, benefiting the commercial real-estate segments as well.
The overall impact of RBI’s repo rate cut, especially on industries like real estate, automobile and banking/finance, is largely positive. This will reduce interest rates on home loans, personal loans and car loans, boosting the sales for these sectors.
This signifies the potential growth of this sector, leading the industry leaders from their respective sectors towards increased revenue and profitability.
Also, the reduced EMI allows individuals to use this disposable income to spend more on packaged foods, benefiting some top FMCG brands.
We suggest investors closely follow such policy changes and indicative ripples on the stock market and explore how they can manifest into a potential uprise or downfall in sales and profitability of specific industries and brands.
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